According to the website information of the National Development and Reform Commission, more than 450 billion yuan in infrastructure projects have been approved since May 18, and a series of steady growth projects will be launched in the future, including more than 430 billion yuan in network construction investment this year. At the same time, the progress of PPP projects in many places is accelerating, and some tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of projects have begun.
Industry insiders believe that a number of macroeconomic indicators show that the current pressure for stable growth is greater, and accelerating investment in infrastructure projects is the key to stable growth. Relevant departments are stepping up the formulation of a number of financial measures to support infrastructure investment and increase funding support. The market should pay attention to the positive trend of private capital participation in infrastructure investment, which will become an effective complement to government-led infrastructure investment and will help improve operational efficiency.
Accelerated project approval
On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the construction plans of the three urban rail transit systems in Nanjing, Nanchang and Hohhot, involving a total investment of 215.191 billion yuan. In the previous 18 days, the Development and Reform Commission disclosed six large-scale infrastructure projects, including 4 railway projects and 2 urban rail transit projects, with an estimated total investment of 243.577 billion yuan. So far, more than 450 billion yuan in railway transportation investment has been approved in just 3 days.
Regarding the intensive approval of railway rail transit projects, experts said that China's current downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, foreign trade is significantly affected by the international market, and consumption growth is unlikely to pick up in the short term. Only investment that can stimulate economic growth in the short term, and Rail project investment is relatively large and can drive many other industries such as steel and cement. Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission will intensively approve railway track projects.
Luo Guo, deputy director of the Fixed Assets Investment Division of the Development and Reform Commission, said at a macroeconomic situation and policy briefing held by the Development and Reform Commission three days ago that a new batch of major engineering packages may be launched in the near future. According to the actual situation, the major engineering packages that are continuously improved and dynamically adjusted are supplemented in time with some major projects that meet the direction and conditions, forming a "four batches", that is, "implementation batch, approval batch, reserve batch" Plan a batch. "
Li Minsheng Securities believes that to achieve the 7% GDP target this year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment must reach at least 25%, with a scale of 14 trillion, which means that infrastructure investment in the next three quarters will rebound significantly from the first quarter.
Overweight financial support
Monetary policy has been repeatedly implemented is a key part of promoting project implementation in various places. On May 11, the central bank cut interest rates again. This is the third round of interest rate cuts in this round after November last year and March this year; less than a month ago, the central bank just reduced the deposit ratio by 1 percentage point.
On May 13, the State Council executive meeting decided to increase the pilot scale of 500 billion yuan in credit asset securitization. The funds vacated by the pilot banks will be used for the blade, focusing on supporting the construction of shed reforms, water conservancy, and central and western railways.
On May 15, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a joint document again requesting local governments at all levels and banking financial institutions to properly handle the follow-up financing of projects under construction by financing platform companies, distinguishing between inventory and incremental implementation of classified management, and complying with laws and regulations Actively support the follow-up financing of the financing platform company's projects under construction, ensure the orderly progress of the projects under construction, effectively meet the reasonable financing needs of the real economy, effectively prevent and resolve financial and financial risks, and require banks to not blindly draw loans from financing platform companies, Pressing loans and suspending loans.
Guo Guotai Junan report believes that the recent steady growth combination has made the traditional steady growth model clearer, and local government financing platforms can't stop. It is expected that RMB loans will expand rapidly in the coming years, and off-balance-sheet financing will resurrect, continuing to limit the decline of risk-free interest rates.
Acceleration of PPP advancement
The Ministry of Water Resources website disclosed on the 21st that recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Water Resources jointly issued the "Notice on Developing Social Capital to Participate in the First Batch of Pilot Projects for Major Water Conservancy Projects" and selected Heilongjiang Fendou Reservoir, Anhui Jiangxiang Reservoir, and Fujian Twelve projects, including the Shangbaishi Reservoir, the Guangdong Hanjiang Gaolong Water Conservancy Project, and the Guizhou Maling Water Conservancy Project, have been used as pilot projects at the national level. The first batch of social capital to participate in the pilot construction and operation of major water conservancy projects will be explored in about 2 years. Reproducible and expandable experiences to promote the improvement of government and social capital cooperation mechanism related policies.
From the perspective of local conditions, PPP cooperation projects in various localities are currently accelerating.
Beginning in the second half of last year, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission successively introduced a series of policies on encouraging the operation of PPP. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance launched 30 demonstration projects. Local governments are also actively exploring how to carry out the operation of PPP projects, and the impact The scope and scope can be said to be unexpected.
"Due to the complex project conditions and long implementation period of PPP projects, it is often difficult to receive effective feedback information in a short period of time, thereby improving the subsequent policy adjustment and improvement of relevant government departments. At the same time, local governments are eager to try and have launched For a series of PPP projects, each city is tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of investment projects. Therefore, if we can sum up experience and learn lessons from the seven or eight thousand PPP projects that have been completed, we can directly benefit. " At the China PPP Salon-Dalian Central City Waste Incineration PPP Project Experience Introduction Conference, a participant said that at present, there have been many successful projects completed, and many failed and detoured projects. How to draw lessons from these projects is particularly important to help current PPP projects to be implemented with less detours.
Li Zhongjin believes that the market should pay attention to the positive trend of private capital participation in infrastructure investment, which will become an effective complement to government-led infrastructure investment and will help improve operating efficiency. The current high growth rate of infrastructure investment of 20% is sustainable. This is because monetary and fiscal policies will increase countercyclical policy adjustments, and the growth rate of public sector infrastructure investment may remain stable at a high level. The government's attitude of encouraging private capital to participate in infrastructure investment is more certain. Loose targeted preferential policies, stable cash flow returns, and adjustments in the real estate industry will attract more private capital to participate in infrastructure investment. Private infrastructure investment will become a government investment Effective supplement.